In economics, there are many ways to determine how a country’s economy and population are doing. We can call this economic health. One of the most popular ones is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP measures the monetary value of a country’s finished goods and services. All the intermediary steps aren’t accounted for. Different ways of calculating GDP and alternative measures of economic health exist. Developed countries are at the top of the GDP list, but developing countries dominate GDP growth. Below, we will take a more in-depth look at all these measures.
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What Is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?
GDP is usually calculated on a quarterly and annual basis. Think of Gross Domestic Product as a quarterly report from a public company.
This allows us to compare the output simultaneously during previous years and the change from quarter to quarter.
Some quarters are more productive than others. For example, summertime is usually slower as there are many holidays. Meanwhile, the fall and winter months usually produce more output since people are at home, and many holidays promote spending.
It becomes easier to compare how the country did at the same time last year. We can also divide the GDP into four main components.
Components of Gross Domestic Product GDP
Below are the four main components of Gross Domestic Product. They show what we as a society spend money on. The numbers in parentheses show the breakdown of the US economy in 2019. Not all countries are net exporters. Many import much more than they export. Different countries have different breakdowns, but the main components remain similar.
Personal Consumption (70%): Durable goods (cars, furniture, appliances, etc.), nondurable goods (clothing, fuel, food, etc.), services (banking, health, education, assistance, etc.).
Business Investment (18%): Purchases businesses do towards producing new goods. There are two sub-categories. The first is fixed investments. It is mainly equipment and new real estate constructions. The second is a change in private inventory. This includes inventory private companies add.
Government Spending (17%): Government spending on infrastructure, transportation, public health, education, etc.
Net Exports (5): Exports minus imports of natural resources, agricultural products, and other economic products. When imports surpass exports, there is a trade deficit.
Calculation of GDP: To calculate the GDP, we take the sum of all the elements above. We multiply the components by the price of each. We obtain the nominal GDP when we use the prices of each year or quarter. In this case, we can see the effects of inflation. However, we use a base year’s prices to obtain the real GDP to obtain a more comparable measure. It becomes easier to compare the volume of goods and services produced yearly.
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
To measure on a more personal basis, we use GDP per capita. We divide the total Gross Domestic Product by the population.
It becomes easier to compare living standards across all countries. When per capita GDP grows, the living standards and production increase.
It can also mean that a country is self-sufficient and doesn’t require much outside help to develop its industries.
If we compare the top 10 countries in GDP and GDP per capita,
Top 10 GDP countries for 2021
- US ($20.49T)
- China ($13.4T)
- Japan ($4.97T)
- Germany ($4T)
- UK ($2.83T)
- France ($2.78T)
- India ($2.72T)
- Italy ($2.07T)
- Brazil ($1.87T)
- Canada ($1.71T).
Gross Domestic Product Countries
- Luxembourg ($125k, 15% increase)
- Ireland ($90k, 14% increase)
- Switzerland ($90k, 10% increase)
- Norway ($76k, 12% increase)
- US $66k (5% increase)
- Denmark (63k, 9% increase)
- Singapore ($62k, 6% increase)
- Iceland ($58k, 2% increase)
- Netherlands ($58k, 13% increase)
- Sweden ($57k, 15% increase)
The only country that appears in both top 10s is the US. However, we can see European countries well represented in both graphs. This is because not only are they growing their economy, but their citizens seem to enjoy a better life year after year.
The US and China have the highest GDP in the world, but there seems to be a lot of disparity between the upper and lower classes in both countries
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Growth Domestic Product Rate
Let’s do the same exercise for the maximum growth rates in both the Gross Domestic Product and GDP per capita categories. We can see which countries are growing faster and whose citizens are enjoying a better life year after year.
Top 10 growth GDP countries for 2021
- Ireland (13%)
- Chile (11%)
- India (9,5%)
- Turkey (9%)
- China (8%)
- Colombia (7.6%)
- Argentina (7.5%)
- Israel (7%)
- Romania (7%)
- UK (6.76%)
GDP Country Changes Since 2020
- Macao (13%)
- Ireland (11%)
- Aruba (9,5%)
- Estonia (9%)
- Hungary (8%)
- Israel (7.6%)
- UK (7.5%)
- Greece (7%)
- Hong Kong (7%)
- Slovenia (6.76%)
When we compare both graphs, we can see three countries stand out: Ireland, Israel, and the UK. This is because all three countries are growing their GDP, and citizens enjoy a better life than in the last two years.
The top 10s in the last two sections can hint at where to invest. Economies that grow quickly and have a stock market can be good investments. They enjoy strong growth, meaning their public companies must also be benefitting.
Ireland is a misleading figure in the charts above. Many multinational companies have their European headquarters there for a simple reason: tax breaks. As a result, their economic activity is recorded in the country’s Gross Domestic Product but doesn’t benefit its citizens.
Growth Domestic Product (GDP) and Investing
How can we use GDP data more precisely for investing? If we dig deeper, we can look at the inventory and corporate profits domestically and abroad.
Abroad, we have to target rapid-growing economies. Therefore, many ETFs are centered around emerging markets such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), the Next Eleven N-11 (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey).
Many of the countries mentioned above are worth a look at. Some of them might rise as leaders in certain industries, which would boost their economies.
To go even further, those with a stable stock market are a plus. Global tensions are affecting current emerging market leaders (BRICS). It’s the time for new countries (N-11 & MINT) to rise and establish dominance.
GDP Limitations
Measuring a country’s Gross Domestic Product gives us a good idea of its performance. However, it doesn’t paint the complete picture. Many social welfare impacts aren’t depicted in the GDP calculation.
Inequalities: As we saw earlier, GDP does not represent the population as a whole. We must see the GDP per capita to understand a country’s median income. When do we think of certain taxes, such as a carbon or sales tax, which social class is the most affected? The lower classes are much more affected as a percentage of their income. Looking at the Ireland example above, we can consider these inequalities.
Transactions Unaccounted for All the transactions leading to the final product aren’t accounted for in the GDP calculation. All the volunteer and free work are also omitted. Lastly, black markets, underground markets, cash transactions, and illegal activities such as bribes are also excluded. These transactions can be a big part of certain economies where the only way to obtain a product or a service is illegal. This applies to developed and developing countries.
Negative Impact Products: Not all products are beneficial to society. In the US, health and education aren’t free or affordable. Meanwhile, in many countries with rising GDP per capita growth, they are. Furthermore, we produce goods that reduce our social welfare as a planet. Think of weapons and pollution.
To have a complete image of the economic well-being of a country, it could be useful to include all these externalities. Therefore, alternative indicators of economic and social wellness exist.
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Other Measures of Economic Health
Gross Domestic Product is easy and quantitative. We can calculate a country’s numerical value and compare it to others. However, not every indicator is as straightforward.
1. Human Development Index (HDI)
The HDI takes people and their skills to assess a country’s economic health.
There are three dimensions (health, education, and standard of living). Each is assessed with measures. For example, health is measured with life expectancy at birth—education, schooling for adults over 25, and expected years of schooling.
Finally, the standard of living is measured by income per capita. According to the HDI scale, here are the top 10 ranked by human development. Each dimension is measured on a scale of 0 to 1. The overall score is also between 0 and 1.
- Norway (0.957)
- Ireland (0.955)
- Switzerland (0.955)
- Hong Kong (0.949)
- Iceland (0.949)
- Germany (0.947)
- Sweden (0.945)
- Australia (0.944)
- Netherlands (0.944)
- Denmark (0.94)
2. Gross National Happiness Index (GNHI):
The small country of Bhutan developed the GNHI. There are four pillars (governance, socio-economic development, cultural preservation, and environmental conservation), classified into nine areas (psychological wellbeing, health, education, time use, cultural diversity and resilience, good governance, community vitality, ecological diversity and resilience, and living standards).
There are 33 indicators measuring them. The majority of the same countries appear for the HDI. It is a complete analysis, but despite the indicators, it isn’t always easy to associate a numerical value to each area.
3. Social Progress Index (SPI)
The last index is socially oriented. It measures three dimensions (basic human needs, foundations of well-being, and opportunity). Once again, many indicators exist, such as nutrition, education, health, rights, etc.
Final Thoughts: Gross Domestic Product
To conclude, Gross Domestic Product is a popular measure to calculate a country’s economic health. However, it is incomplete. A country may be atop the chart, but certain essential needs, such as education, freedom, and health, aren’t available for all.
Access to free education and health is lacking in the US, while freedom isn’t particularly popular in China. Yet, surprisingly, they lead the way for GDP. European countries lead in terms of social freedoms and basic needs. Many are also ranked much higher in terms of GDP per capita. However, many leading multinational companies are in the US and China.
When it comes to money, investors follow the money. If European and emerging countries continue their strong growth, we may see a shift in the stock markets. Once upon a time, the London Stock Exchange was the biggest stock market in the world. Who knows what the future will bring?
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